working papers

The micro and macro of disappearing routine jobs: a flows approach.
with guido matias cortes, nir jaimovich, and chris nekarda.  updated: july, 2014.
see the media coverage in the new york times, engadget, fivethirtyeight, the washington center for equitable growth, and the globe and mail; see our summary column at

Refugees from dust and shrinking land: tracking the Dust Bowl migrants.
with jason long.  updated: june, 2014.

What should i be when i grow up? occupations and unemployment over the life cycle.
with martin gervais, nir jaimovich, and yaniv yedid-levi.  updated: february, 2014.

The trend is the cycle: job polarization and jobless recoveries.
with nir jaimovich.  updated: march, 2014.
see the media coverage in the new york times (also appearing in the globe and mail, irish independent, belfast telegraph, and reuters), the atlantic, bloomberg, businessweek (also appearing in financial post and the boston globe), forbes, businessweek, austin american-statesman (also appearing in pittsburgh post-gazette and the vancouver sun), bloomberg, standard-examiner, the new york times, us news and world report, huffington post, chicago sun-times, the atlantic (also appearing in national journal), the associated press (appearing in washington post, san francisco chronicle,, huffington post, abc news, and yahoo news), deseret news, the globe and mail, and the associated press (appearing in washington post, financial post, boston globe, minneapolis star tribune, san jose mercury news, and abc news); see the blog coverage at macromania, macroblog, ippr, the economist, the washington post, new statesman, economist's view, the wall street journal, the washington post, economist's view, mother jones, american enterprise institute, the new york times, brad delong, the economist, and the economist; see the summaries in the st. louis fed's regional economist, the nber digest, the dallas fed's economic letter, and our column at



Technological learning and labor market dynamics, international economic review, forthcoming.
with martin gervais, nir jaimovich, and yaniv yedid-levi.

The demand for youth: explaining age differences in the volatility of hours, american economic review, december 2013.   [doi]
with nir jaimovich and seth pruitt.

The young, the old, and the restless: demographics and business cycle volatility, american economic review, june 2009.   [doi]
with nir jaimovich.
see the coverage in the minneapolis fed's the region, the richmond fed's around the fed, and the american; see the blog coverage at greg mankiw's blog, new economist, economist's view, and newsweek.

Time consistent monetary policy with endogenous price rigidity, journal of economic theory, january 2008.   [doi]

The fiscal role of conscription in the US World War II effort, journal of monetary economics, september 2008.   [doi]
the supplementary material is available here.

State dependent pricing and business cycle asymmetries, international economic review, february 2007.   [doi]
with mick devereux.

Fluctuations in convex models of endogenous growth II: business cycle properties, review of economic dynamics, october 2005.   [doi]
with larry jones and rody manuelli.
an earlier version is available as nber working paper w7633 and federal reserve bank of minneapolis staff report 271.

Fluctuations in convex models of endogenous growth I: growth effects, review of economic dynamics, october 2005.   [doi]
with larry jones, rody manuelli, and ennio stacchetti.

Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with sticky prices, journal of monetary economics, april 2004.   [doi]
an extended version is available as ubc department of economics discussion paper 02-13.



Bank of canada governor's award, first recipient, 2008.