Description: There are two well-developed philosophical theories that try to characterize what it means to make choices rationally. One is Decision Theory, which considers the position of one agent choosing between several alternatives, with varying levels of information about factors that might influence the resulting outcomes. The other is Game Theory, which provides techniques for analyzing interactions between several agents.

The course will focus on explaining the two theories and related concepts (such as probability). We will also explore paradoxical situations (such as Newcomb’s problem and the Prisoner’s Dilemma) where the theories appear to clash with ordinary intuitions about rationality.

Both theories have a wide range of applications, including business strategies, ethical and political choices, and the confirmation/disconfirmation of scientific theories. We will consider such applications throughout the course, with emphasis on social applications of game theory, concluding with a discussion of Skyrms’ book, Evolution of the Social Contract.

Texts:        

[C] Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory, M.D. Resnik (University of Minnesota, 1991). Available in bookstore.

[SC] Evolution of the Social Contract, B. Skyrms (Cambridge University Press, 1996). Available in bookstore and on reserve at Koerner.

[X] Extra photocopied materials (course packet).

Requirements: The final grade will be based upon the following scheme:

                                                                                    Weight

Three problem sets (5% each)                                                 15%
Mid-term test                                                                           20%
Term Paper (2000-2500 words/8-10 pages — due Dec. 3)    30%
Final exam (exam period)                                                         35%

Pre-requisites: There are no pre-requisites; however, students who take this course should feel comfortable with technical work. I recommend having taken Phil 120 (Critical Thinking), Phil 220 (Logic), or introductory courses in mathematics, computer science or economics. Please speak to me if you have any concerns about this aspect of the course.

Web page:  All hand-outs will be posted to the course web page, http://www.philosophy.ubc.ca/faculty/bartha/p321f01.htm.

Tentative Lecture and Assignment Schedule

Week             Topics and Readings                                              Assignments

Sept. 3             Basic Concepts of Decision Theory                     Read [X] 1 by
                         [C] 1                                                                  Sept. 30

Sept. 10         Basics (cont.) and Decisions Under Ignorance
                       [C] 2

Sept. 17         Decisions under Risk:  Probability and Bayesian Inference
                       [C] 3-1, 3-2

Sept. 24         Interpretations of Probability; Utility
                       [C] 3-3, 4-1

Oct. 1            Paradoxes of utility theory; Newcomb's problem             Assig. 1 due Oct. 1
                      [C] 4-2, 4-4 - 4-6, [X] 6 (Nozick)

Oct. 8             Newcomb's problem (continued)                                  **No class Oct. 8
                      [X] 6 (Nozick), 7 (Gibbard and Harper), 9 (Eells)

Oct. 15         Game Theory:   Dominance and Equilibrium Strategies    Mid-term test: Oct. 19
                      [C] 5-1 - 5-3

Oct. 22         Mixed strategies
                      [C] 5-3, 5-3a-d, 5-5 (only pages 157-159)

Oct. 29         Prisoner's Dilemma and Failures of Equilibrium                  Assig. 2 due Oct. 29
                    [C] 5-4, 5-4a-e. [X] 2 (Davis)

Nov. 5          Prisoner's Dilemma (continued)
                     [X] 4 (Gauthier), 14 (Lewis), 15 (Davis), 16 (Sobel)

Nov. 12        Evolutionary Game Theory                                              **No class Nov. 12
                     [X] 18 (Sobel), 20 (Hardin); [SC] 1

Nov. 19         Evolution of the Social Contract                                 
                       [SC] 2, 3

Nov. 26         Evolution of the Social Contract                                     Assig. 3 due Nov. 26
                       [SC] 4, 5