Phil 321/01 (3)
Probability and Decision

Fall 2010
September 8 - December 3

MWF 10:00 - 11:00, Buchanan B318

TA Information:  TBA

Handouts (and Overheads)

Announcements

September 20: 

1.  The discussion of Elga’s “Sleeping Beauty” article is postponed to a later week.
2.  Omit Box 2.2 from chapter 2.
3.  Omit Box 3.2 from chapter 3.

September 24:

As of today, this website is being discontinued and replaced by Vista.  Go to www.vista.ubc.ca and click on Phil 321.  All course handouts, assignments and announcements will be located on Vista.


Instructor

Paul Bartha
Buchanan E-366
Tel. 822-2621
E-mail:  pbartha@exchange.ubc.ca

Office Hours

MW 12:00-1:00 or by appointment


Description: There are two well-developed philosophical theories that try to characterize what it means to make choices rationally. One is decision Theory, which considers the position of one agent choosing between several alternatives, with varying levels of information about factors that might influence the resulting outcomes. The other is game theory, which provides techniques for analyzing interactions among several agents.

The course explains the fundamentals of these two theories and relevant background concepts such as probability and utility. We also explore paradoxical situations where the theories appear to clash with ordinary intuitions about rationality.  We will consider applications throughout the course, with emphasis on social applications of game theory, and conclude with an introduction to evolutionary game theory and a discussion of Skyrms’ book, Evolution of the Social Contract.  

Texts:

[P] An Introduction to Decision Theory, Martin Peterson (Cambridge University Press, 2009). Available in bookstore.

[SC] Evolution of the Social Contract, Brian Skyrms (Cambridge University Press, 1996). Available in bookstore.

[X] Extra materials (linked from on-line version of course syllabus, below).

Requirements: The final grade will be based upon the following scheme:  three problem sets (15%), mid-term test (20%), term paper (2000-2500 words/7-10 pages — 30%), final exam (35%).

Prerequisites: Students who take this course should feel comfortable with technical work. I recommend having taken Phil 120 (Critical Thinking), Phil 125 (Scientific Reasoning), Phil 220 (Logic), or an introductory course in mathematics, computer science or economics. Please speak to me if you have any concerns about this aspect of the course.


Course Hand-outs and Overheads

Note:  All hand-outs require Adobe Acrobat Reader. 

Course Syllabus                                                             

Lectures

Week 2:  Decisions under ignorance
Week 3:  Decisions under risk

Problem Sets 

Assignment 1 (due October 4)                                               

 

Solutions to Problems